Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
Copy Link
COVID-19 Update
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Mike’s Notes on What’s Happening in the Market
With all the real estate headlines in the news, I thought you might like know that, at least locally, the story may be different. I wanted to share this so people you know can benefit:
It is true that some may have paused this summer thinking the market was slowing. Perhaps many “hoped” that was what was happening? As I mentioned in the first of the year forecast and this summer, although locally some hope the market is slowing so they can “go get a deal,” at issue still is that “everyone” is moving here. Let me repeat- 80 people per day are moving to the Puget Sound region alone for a better life than what they had but most importantly because the jobs are being created right here. Just ask Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google and the rest.
I can tell you from first hand experience at my open houses these past two months that virtually all of the visitors and the buyers are new to this area. Read that again.
IF you want to BUY in this market we need to be talking right now. I need to help you get 40 days ahead of your competitors.
IF you want to SELL then we need to be talking right NOW and start preparing your place to get top dollar in late February/March.
For my friends and clients east of the mountains, the second home market did slow down this year but watch for it to stabilize and start working its way back up in 2020. Although some of those buyers are new to this area, majority of those buyers have been recreation minded “east of the mountains” for years and want a home in that popular area. More on that later…
Western Washington Real Estate Update-The Gardner Report
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Washington State employment slowed to an annual growth rate of 1.7% — a level not seen since 2012 — and continues a trend of slowing that started in the summer of 2018. I was a little surprised to see such a significant drop in employment growth, but it may be due to the state re-benchmarking their data (which they do annually). As such, I am not overly concerned about the lower-than-expected numbers but will be watching to see if this trend continues as we move through the spring months. The state unemployment rate was 4.5%, marginally below the 4.6% level a year ago.
My latest economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2019 will be positive but is expected to slow. We should see an additional 84,000 new jobs, which would be a year-over-year increase of 2.2%.
HOME SALES
- There were 13,292 home sales during the first quarter of 2019. Year-over-year, sales were down 12.3% and were 23.4% lower than the fourth quarter of 2018.
- It is quite likely that part of the slowdown can be attributed to the very poor weather in February. That said, anecdotal information from our brokers suggests that March was a very active month and I expect to see sales rise again through the spring selling season. Notably, pending home sales were only off by 3.5% from the first quarter of 2018.
- All counties contained in this report saw sales drop when compared to a year ago. The greatest drops were in the relatively small counties of San Juan, Clallam, Island, and Kitsap.
- The decline in interest rates during the first two months of the quarter nudged many home buyers off the fence. I believe this will cause a significant bump in sales activity in the second quarter numbers.
HOME PRICES
In combination with the factors discussed earlier, the 40% increase in listings has caused home price growth to taper to a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.- Home prices were higher in every county except Clallam. While the growth of prices is slowing, the strong local economy, combined with lower interest rates, will cause home prices to continue rising through 2019.
- When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan County, where home prices were up 36.4%. Only one other county experienced a double-digit price increase.
- As I have said for quite some time now, there must always be a relationship between incomes and home prices, and many areas around Western Washington are testing this ceiling. That said, the region’s economy continues to perform well and incomes are rising, which, in concert with low interest rates, will allow prices to continue to rise but at a significantly slower pace.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home matched the same quarter of 2018.
- Pierce County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 40 days to sell. There were seven counties that saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in seven counties and one was unchanged.
- Across the entire region, it took an average of 61 days to sell a home in the first quarter of 2019. This matches the level seen a year ago but is up by 10 days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
- In the last two Gardner Reports, I suggested that we should be prepared for days-on-market to increase, and that is now occurring. Given projected increases in inventory, this trend will continue, but this is typical of a regional market that is moving back toward balance.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. I am again moving the needle toward buyers as price growth moderates and listing inventory continues to rise.
I do not see any clouds on the horizon that suggest we will see a downturn in sales activity in 2019. That said, this will be the year we move closer to balance. Buyers who were sidelined by the significant increase in listings in the second half of 2018 are starting to get off the fence as mortgage rates drop. I foresee a buoyant spring market ahead.
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.
2018 Puget Sound Real Estate and What’s to Come in 2019
|
Mike’s July 2018 Real Estate update with notes
Here is your snapshot of home sales in key Puget Sound neighborhoods updated for July 2018 and its influence on the rest of the state. For the first time in 18 months the market cooled somewhat. We have went from super hot to slightly less hot (not just the weather). Buyers shouldn’t get over excited but some relief is here. Home price escalation has slowed from 12.8% to 12.1% statewide and in this chart most neighborhoods are still up double digits. August should see even more cooling before we head into the “post Labor Day season” which picks up till mid-November.
Mike’s Summary First Half 2018 Real Estate Trends WA
https://mailchi.mp/504a8b0be6fe/first-half-update-whats-happening-in-the-market
Here is the first half summary of real estate trends for homes and condos in key sub areas of King and Snohomish counties as well as the upper Wenatchee valley of Chelan county. Although demand is still high, foot traffic to listings has slowed some. Price change in many sub areas is down to 10% for the first time in quite a while.
In this summary I have shared the Leavenworth area details AND one more thing!
Offering a historic mansion in Leavenworth, WA
Here is a choice opportunity to own this historic mansion just a few blocks from downtown Leavenworth!!! Likely one of most expensive home built in 1918, this well preserved and updated 2028 sq ft 3 bedroom custom masterpiece has solid hardwood floors throughout, period lighting, custom crystal sheet glass windows, open floor plan with tons of potential. Huge 1/4 acre corner lot, fully fenced backyard, mature landscaping, high walk score, could be B & B, monthly rentals ok, your vision awaits this must have gem.
https://michaeljlink.withwre.com/listing/80938422
You probably have friends, family and peers that have been looking for a great home in downtown Leavenworth, Peshastin or the upper Wenatchee valley. I just listed the historic Motteler Mansion for $535,000!
Over 2000 sq ft of hi quality period craftsmanship with hardwood floors throughout, crystal glass custom windows, over 1/4 acre lot, well maintained and updated through the years. Open houses this coming Saturday the 30th and Sunday the 1st (12-4). Tell everyone and I hope to see you there! Neighborhood lemonade stand included!!!!
The Reprint– Buyers Guide How to buy in Seattle area
I wanted to share with you this great reprint of the authored article published in The Seattle Times that summarizes what the buyer needs to be prepared for. It is a battle out there and I have been helping my buyers win homes and condos even in this super hot competitive market.
Here is the cold, hard math: The median down payment on all homes (single-family and condos) in King County just topped $100,000 for the first time, up from about $50,000 just five years ago, according to mortgage tracking company Attom Data Solutions.
contact me directly to receive the full 28 page article!!!
Here is where people are moving to–
|
|||||||||
|
